In their Projection 2016 the authors present too long-term scenarios for the German labour market until 2030:
- In a baseline scenario the authors consider the recent migration movements of refugees and assess their impact on growth, employment and unemployment. The main focus is on the way this migration contributes to a reduction of the increasing skills shortage.
- In the scenario “accelerated digitalization“ they develop a forecast of the effects of digitalization on the labour market. In contrast to a number of other current studies they perceive significant market potentials generated by the enforced digitalization and implementation of Industry 4.0. This will have positive effects on growth and employment.
Kurt Vogler-Ludwig is founder and director of Economix Research & Consulting in Munich, an independent economic consultancy.
He is an economist specialising in labour market and structural research, European Commission advisor and consultant for Federal Ministries and ministries of the German Federal States as well as for political institutions in Germany and abroad.
Dr. Ben Kriechel is director of Economix with many years of experience in developing quantitative forecast models for labour markets and qualifications. In this capacity he is consultant to ILO, ETF and Cedefop, amongst others. He is also author of a handbook on quantitative forecast models and qualitative scenarios commissioned by ILO and Cedefop.
The study “German Labour Market 2030“ was commissioned by the Federal Ministry of Labour and Social Affairs in 2011. The objective is to develop a long-term projection of the labour market until 2030.
The focus is not primarily on accurate predictions of future trends but on identifying challenges and best strategies for policy making, business and society.