Arbeitsmarkt 2030

Arbeitsmarkt 2030 - Prognose 2016

Kurt Vogler-Ludwig, Nicola Düll, Ben Kriechel

Arbeitsmarkt 2030 – Wirtschaft und Arbeitsmarkt im digitalen Zeitalter
Prognose 2016

2016, 39,– € (GER)
ISBN 978-3-7639-5770-5

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In their Projection 2016 the authors present too long-term scenarios for the German labour market until 2030:

  • In a baseline scenario the authors consider the recent  migration movements of refugees and assess their impact on growth, employment and unemployment. The main focus is on the way this migration contributes to a reduction of the increasing skills shortage.
  • In the scenario “accelerated digitalization“ they develop a forecast of the effects of digitalization on the labour market. In contrast to a number of other current studies they perceive significant market potentials generated by the enforced digitalization and implementation of Industry 4.0. This will have positive effects on growth and employment.


Kurt Vogler-Ludwig

Kurt Vogler-Ludwig is founder and director of Economix Research & Consulting in Munich, an independent economic consultancy.

He is an economist specialising in labour market and structural research, European Commission advisor and consultant for Federal Ministries and ministries of the German Federal States as well as for political institutions in Germany and abroad.

Nicola Düll

Nicola Düll is co-founder and director of Economix Research & Consulting, European Commission correspondent as well as consultant for the OECD, the World Bank and political institutions in Germany and abroad.

Ben Kriechel

Dr. Ben Kriechel is director of Economix with many years of experience in developing quantitative forecast models for labour markets and qualifications. In this capacity he is consultant to ILO, ETF and Cedefop, amongst others. He is also author of a handbook on quantitative forecast models and qualitative scenarios commissioned by ILO and Cedefop.

The project

The study “German Labour Market 2030“ was commissioned by the Federal Ministry of Labour and Social Affairs in 2011. The objective is to develop a long-term projection of the labour market  until 2030.

The focus is not primarily on accurate predictions of future trends but on identifying challenges and best strategies for policy making, business and society.

Forecasts since 2013